Archive for April, 2012

Apr 27 2012

Mighty Mumbai vs Delhi Daredevils

     vs     

 

DD won MI. But that was ten days ago against a team that didn’t have Tendulkar and Malinga. Can DD pull off another victory against MI today? The past stats between DD and MI reveal that Mumbai Indians has won 5 times of the 9 matches they have encountered.

Today’s match – Delhi has just blasted 207/5. Can they defend the score that they have accumulated? We will not cover that in this post but  have come up with interesting observations from the social media. As promised, in today’s blog we have extended our earlier research a bit further to provide you the sentiment trends of prominent players. Presenting you the insights from social media on these two teams…

DD has emerged as a clear winner in terms of the count and also in the percentage of positive comments.

Comments/Feedback received by DD scaled to 100%

Players to look out in Dare Devils ( Scaled to comments received by Virendar Sehwag)


 

Players to look out in Mumbai Indians ( Scaled to comments received by Sachin Tendulkar)

“Sentiment watch” on prominent DD players ( Scaled to comments received by Glenn Maxwell on the first day of IPL)

 

“Sentiment watch” on prominent MI players ( Scaled to comments received by Glen Maxwell on the first day of IPL)

Keep watching this space. As we mentioned earlier, this space will get more insightful over the next few days. The next blog will be on Chennai Super Kings Vs Deccan Chargers targeted 4th May, 2012.

As always your thoughts and suggestions are most welcome. Send them to socialmedia@aaumanalytics.com

– Team Analytics

Apr 25 2012

Indian Telecom Sector – An Analyst View

The Indian Telecom Sector has grown by leaps and bounds over the last decade. The growth has been explosive in the wireless segment with teledensity levels reaching 75.42% overall and the subscriber base reaching 911.17 million at the end of Feb 2012 from 893.84 million at the end of Dec 2011. Even more impressive is the teledensity figures for the urban areas, which has crossed 162.61%. To the contrary, the teledensity figures for rural areas remain at around 37.62%. However, the fact that the rural segment is the fastest growing in terms of subscriber base is encouraging. With 68.84% of India’s population living in rural areas, this presents a huge opportunity for the telecom sector.

The wireless segment can be broadly classified into GSM and CDMA segments based on the underlying technology. The GSM segment holds the majority of subscribers with 785.97 million at the end of Dec 2011. The remaining 107.88 million subscribers use CDMA based services.

While the GSM segment is seeing a consistent increase in the number of subscribers, the CDMA segment is seeing a reduction. The CDMA wireless segment saw a decrease from 112.42 million at end of Sept 2011 to 107.88 million at the end of Dec 2011. In contrast the figures for GSM are 761.20 million and 785.97 million for Sept and Dec 2011 respectively.

The overall wireless market and consequently the GSM market is led by Bharti Airtel which held 19.62% at the end of Feb 2012. It is followed by Reliance Communications, which holds 16.68% of the market and is also the leader in the CDMA segment. In the GSM segment, Bharti Airtel is closely followed by Vodafone and Idea while Tata and Sistema follow Reliance Communications in the CDMA segment.

Looking at the subscriber additions in the past few months, Idea and Uninor were seeing the maximum additions while those of established players like Airtel and Vodafone had somewhat flattened. However, with the cancellation of 2G licenses by the Supreme Court, Bharti Airtel once again came to the forefront with an impressive 2.50 million subscribers added in March 2012, compared to 1.82 million in Feb 2012. Idea and Uninor, which had led the subscriber additions with 2.58 and 2.34 million additions in Feb 2012 alone, saw the impact of 2G license cancellations with reduced additions of 2.01 and 1.29 million respectively in March 2012.

With many subscribers opting for multiple SIM’s, it would be prudent to consider the VLR data of active subscribers released by TRAI to understand customer preference to operators. The data shows an active subscriber base of 670.65 million for Feb 2012, which is 73.6% of the subscriber base reported by the telecom companies. Further analysis of the data reveals that the proportion of VLR base to the reported subscriber base is maximum (around 90%) for established players like Airtel, Idea and Vodafone whereas it is close to 60% and less for new entrants like Uninor. It can be inferred that despite having the maximum subscriber additions over the past few months, the actual proportion of active users is quite less when compared to the incumbents.

While the overall industry outlook has been positive in terms of the subscriber additions and penetration levels, the same cannot be said for the revenue front. Heavy competition has led to a massive reduction in tariff levels, which has put a dent in the revenues of operators. The ARPU data has shown a downward trend over the years. This has been seen for both GSM and CDMA segments. While a slight increase has been seen over the Sept-Dec 2011 quarter, this is attributed to the tariff rise that was implemented by the operators.

The telecom sector is now looking at increasing their revenues by offering advanced services such as 3G, Mobile Value Added Services and 4G. This shift in focus from the core voice based service is seen in view of the commoditization of the voice services. Operators are introducing data-based services through which they can command a premium and bolster their revenues. While the offering of 3G based services in India has seen some hiccups, it is expected that growth in the near future will be high, facilitated by better quality of service from operators as well as through the availability of cheaper 3G enabled handsets.

Telecom Companies in India have also faced regulatory hurdles pertaining to the spectrum auction. With the Supreme Court cancelling all of the 122 2G licenses under question in the scam, many new entrants are now left with no option but to withdraw, or to participate in the fresh auctions and incur additional cost. All this is expected to burden the consumer in the form of tariff increase.

In order to gain deeper insights into the Indian Telecom Sector, Aaum is undertaking a three phased research

The first phase would involve gathering the Indian customer’s preferences. This data will tell us about unfulfilled gaps between customer requirements and services offered by telecom operators. At the same time, it will also provide us with an insight about the acceptance levels of new initiatives like 3G, Mobile VAS and 4G

The second phase would involve interactions with telecom operators. These interactions will help us gain a holistic understanding of their strategy, focus markets and future plans.

In the third phase we would interact with the regulator(TRAI) in order to get an insight into the regulatory scenario and future changes/initiatives by the Government of India.

Apr 25 2012

UnTwittering IPL

Our analysts have come up with an interesting approach to gain an understanding on the IPL matches. The team has carefully picked up the relevant sentiments expressed by people in the tweetosphere and have come up with metrics to measure the popularity of teams, popularity of their members, etc prior to the match as well as after the match. Keep watching this space as we have got very interesting plans to extend this research to predict the performance of the team, players, etc.

To begin with, let us consider the match that we hope to begin in a few minutes between CSK and RCB (Most likely to get called off due to rain :( )

The past results between CSK and RCB reveal that Chennai team has won 7 times of the 12 matches they have encountered. But anything can happen during the match between these two giants. Let us look at the tweet results for the most awaited match between CSK and RC to know what people think about these teams and their favorite players to watch for.

 CSK has emerged as a clear winner in terms of tweet count

preferred players in CSK

preferred players in RCB

As we mentioned earlier, this space will get more insightful over the next  few days. Want to know how they have fared in social media after the match? Did the ranking change after the match? Wait for a day!

As always your thoughts and suggestions are most welcome. Send them to socialmedia@aaumanalytics.com

– Team Analytics

Apr 23 2012

Greetings from Aaum team

Dear Readers,

You have been a great assistance in providing comments in our Facebook Page

Some of you asked for regular updates from us and that motivated us to create this blog especially for you.

We will post content specific to analytics, consulting and livelihood insync with our three specific lines of business. i.e.

  • Analytics – our focused initiative to build appropriate statistical models through which clients can measure and grow their business.
  • Competitive Intelligence – our consulting efforts to provide actionable insights to clients for their business excellence.
  • Livelihood – our commitment to perform livelihood services ranging from promotion of livelihoods, implementation services, livelihood & feasibility studies.

Livelihood initiative will sooner become the CSR arm of AAUM. A dedicated website is getting ready ->www.livelihood.aaumanalytics.com

Do visit us @ http://www.aaumanalytics.com

We would love to hear your thoughts and ideas. You can reach us through blog@aaumanalytics.com

Happy reading!

– Team Aaum